Automated causal inference in application to randomized controlled clinical trials

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard for testing causal hypotheses in the clinical domain; however, the investigation of prognostic variables of patient outcome in a hypothesized cause–effect route is not feasible using standard statistical methods. Here we propose a new automated causal inference method (AutoCI) built on the invariant causal prediction (ICP) framework for the causal reinterpretation of clinical trial data. Compared with existing methods, we show that the proposed AutoCI allows one to clearly determine the causal variables of two real-world RCTs of patients with endometrial cancer with mature outcome and extensive clinicopathological and molecular data. This is achieved via suppressing the causal probability of non-causal variables by a wide margin. In ablation studies, we further demonstrate that the assignment of causal probabilities by AutoCI remains consistent in the presence of confounders. In conclusion, these results confirm the robustness and feasibility of AutoCI for future applications in real-world clinical analysis

Prognostic Integrated Image-Based Immune and Molecular Profiling in Early-Stage Endometrial Cancer

Optimum risk stratification in early-stage endometrial cancer (EC) combines clinicopathological factors and the molecular EC classification defined by The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). It is unclear whether analysis of intratumoral immune infiltrate improves this. We developed a machine-learning image-based algorithm to quantify density of CD8+ and CD103+ immune cells in tumor epithelium and stroma in 695 stage I endometrioid ECs from the PORTEC-1&-2 trials. The relationship between immune cell density and clinicopathological/molecular factors was analyzed by hierarchical clustering and multiple regression. The prognostic value of immune infiltrate by cell type and location was analyzed by univariable and multivariable Cox regression, incorporating the molecular EC classification. Tumor-infiltrating immune cell density varied substantially between cases, and more modestly by immune cell type and location. Clustering revealed three groups with high, intermediate and low densities, with highly significant variation in the proportion of molecular EC subgroups between them. Univariable analysis revealed intraepithelial CD8+ cell density as the strongest predictor of EC recurrence; multivariable analysis confirmed this was independent of pathological factors and molecular subgroup. Exploratory analysis suggested this association was not uniform across molecular subgroups, but greatest in tumors with mutant p53 and absent in DNA mismatch repair deficient cancers. Thus, this work identified that quantification of intraepithelial CD8+ cells improved upon the prognostic utility of the molecular EC classification in early-stage EC

Patients' and clinicians' preferences in adjuvant treatment for high-risk endometrial cancer:Implications for shared decision making

Background. Decision making regarding adjuvant therapy for high-risk endometrial cancer is complex. The aim of this study was to determine patients' and clinicians' minimally desired survival benefit to choose chemoradiotherapy over radiotherapy alone. Moreover, influencing factors and importance of positive and negative treatment effects (i.e. attribute) were investigated. Methods. Patients with high-risk endometrial cancer treated with adjuvant pelvic radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy and multidisciplinary gynaecologic oncology clinicians completed a trade-off questionnaire based on PORTEC-3 trial data. Results. In total, 171 patients and 63 clinicians completed the questionnaire. Median minimally desired benefit to make chemoradiotherapy worthwhile was significantly higher for patients versus clinicians (10% vs 5%, p = 0.02). Both patients and clinicians rated survival benefit most important during decision making, followed by long-term symptoms. Older patients (OR 0.92 [95%CI 0.87 & ndash;0.97]; p = 0.003) with comorbidity (OR 0.34 [95% CI 0.12 & ndash;0.89]; p = 0.035) had lower preference for chemoradiotherapy, while patients with better numeracy skills (OR 1.2 [95%CI 1.05 & ndash;1.36], p = 0.011) and chemoradiotherapy history (OR 25.0 [95%CI 8.8 & ndash;91.7]; p < 0.001) had higher preference for chemoradiotherapy. & nbsp;Conclusions. There is a considerable difference in minimally desired survival benefit of chemoradiotherapy in high-risk endometrial cancer among and between patients and clinicians. Overall, endometrial cancer patients needed higher benefits than clinicians before preferring chemoradiotherapy. (c) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

Radiation Therapy Techniques and Treatment-Related Toxicity in the PORTEC-3 Trial:Comparison of 3-Dimensional Conformal Radiation Therapy Versus Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy

Purpose Radiation therapy techniques have developed from 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3DCRT) to intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT), with better sparing of the surrounding normal tissues. The current analysis aimed to investigate whether IMRT, compared to 3DCRT, resulted in fewer adverse events (AEs) and patient-reported symptoms in the randomized PORTEC-3 trial for high-risk endometrial cancer. Methods and Materials Data on AEs and patient-reported quality of life (QoL) of the PORTEC-3 trial were available for analysis. Physician-reported AEs were graded using Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events v3.0. QoL was assessed by the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer QLQC30, CX24, and OV28 questionnaires. Data were compared between 3DCRT and IMRT. A P value of ≤ .01 was considered statistically significant due to the risk of multiple testing. For QoL, combined scores 1 to 2 (“not at all” and “a little”) versus 3 to 4 (“quite a bit” and “very much”) were compared between the techniques. Results Of 658 evaluable patients, 559 received 3DCRT and 99 IMRT. Median follow-up was 74.6 months. During treatment no significant differences were observed, with a trend for more grade ≥3 AEs, mostly hematologic and gastrointestinal, after 3DCRT (37.7% vs 26.3%, P = .03). During follow-up, 15.4% (vs 4%) had grade ≥2 diarrhea, and 26.1% (vs 13.1%) had grade ≥2 hematologic AEs after 3DCRT (vs IMRT) (both P < .01). Among 574 (87%) patients evaluable for QoL, 494 received 3DCRT and 80 IMRT. During treatment, 37.5% (vs 28.6%) reported diarrhea after 3DCRT (vs IMRT) (P = .125); 22.1% (versus 10.0%) bowel urgency (P = 0039), and 18.2% and 8.6% abdominal cramps (P = .058). Other QoL scores showed no differences. Conclusions IMRT resulted in fewer grade ≥3 AEs during treatment and significantly lower rates of grade ≥2 diarrhea and hematologic AEs during follow-up. Trends toward fewer patient-reported bowel urgency and abdominal cramps were observed after IMRT compared to 3DCRT

Long-Term Toxicity and Health-Related Quality of Life After Adjuvant Chemoradiation Therapy or Radiation Therapy Alone for High-Risk Endometrial Cancer in the Randomized PORTEC-3 Trial

PURPOSE: The survival results of the PORTEC-3 trial showed a significant improvement in both overall and failure-free survival with chemoradiation therapy versus pelvic radiation therapy alone. The present analysis was performed to compare long-term adverse events (AE) and health-related quality of life (HRQOL). METHODS AND MATERIALS: In the study, 660 women with high-risk endometrial cancer were randomly assigned to receive chemoradiation therapy (2 concurrent cycles of cisplatin followed by 4 cycles of carboplatin/paclitaxel) or radiation therapy alone. Toxicity was graded using Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 3.0. HRQOL was measured using EORTC QLQ-C30 and CX24/OV28 subscales and compared with normative data. An as-treated analysis was performed. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 74.6 months; 574 (87%) patients were evaluable for HRQOL. At 5 years, grade ≥2 AE were scored for 78 (38%) patients who had received chemoradiation therapy versus 46 (24%) who had received radiation therapy alone (P = .008). Grade 3 AE did not differ significantly between the groups (8% vs 5%, P = .18) at 5 years, and only one new late grade 4 toxicity had been reported. At 3 and 5 years, sensory neuropathy toxicity grade ≥2 persisted after chemoradiation therapy in 6% (vs 0% after radiation therapy, P < .001) and more patients reported significant tingling or numbness at HRQOL (27% vs 8%, P < .001 at 3 years; 24% vs 9%, P = .002 at 5 years). Up to 3 years, more patients who had chemoradiation therapy reported limb weakness (21% vs 5%, P < .001) and lower physical (79 vs 87, P < .001) and role functioning (78 vs 88, P < .001) scores. Both treatment groups reported similar long-term global health/quality of life scores, which were better than those of the normative population. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows a long-lasting, clinically relevant, negative impact of chemoradiation therapy on toxicity and HRQOL, most importantly persistent peripheral sensory neuropathy. Physical and role functioning impairments were seen until 3 years. These long-term data are essential for patient information and shared decision-making regarding adjuvant chemotherapy for high-risk endometrial cancer

Molecular and Clinicopathologic Characterization of Mismatch Repair-Deficient Endometrial Carcinoma Not Related to MLH1 Promoter Hypermethylation

Universal tumor screening in endometrial carcinoma (EC) is increasingly adopted to identify individuals at risk of Lynch syndrome (LS). These cases involve mismatch repair-deficient (MMRd) EC without MLH1 promoter hypermethylation (PHM). LS is confirmed through the identification of germline MMR pathogenic variants (PV). In cases where these are not detected, emerging evidence highlights the significance of double-somatic MMR gene alterations as a sporadic cause of MMRd, alongside POLE/POLD1 exonuclease domain (EDM) PV leading to secondary MMR PV. Our understanding of the incidence of different MMRd EC origins not related to MLH1-PHM, their associations with clinicopathologic characteristics, and the prognostic implications remains limited. In a combined analysis of the PORTEC-1, -2, and -3 trials (n = 1254), 84 MMRd EC not related to MLH1-PHM were identified that successfully underwent paired tumor–normal tissue next-generation sequencing of the MMR and POLE/POLD1 genes. Among these, 37% were LS associated (LS-MMRd EC), 38% were due to double-somatic hits (DS-MMRd EC), and 25% remained unexplained. LS-MMRd EC exhibited higher rates of MSH6 (52% vs 19%) or PMS2 loss (29% vs 3%) than DS-MMRd EC, and exclusively showed MMR-deficient gland foci. DS-MMRd EC had higher rates of combined MSH2/MSH6 loss (47% vs 16%), loss of >2 MMR proteins (16% vs 3%), and somatic POLE-EDM PV (25% vs 3%) than LS-MMRd EC. Clinicopathologic characteristics, including age at tumor onset and prognosis, did not differ among the various groups. Our study validates the use of paired tumor–normal next-generation sequencing to identify definitive sporadic causes in MMRd EC unrelated to MLH1-PHM. MMR immunohistochemistry and POLE-EDM mutation status can aid in the differentiation between LS-MMRd EC and DS-MMRd EC. These findings emphasize the need for integrating tumor sequencing into LS diagnostics, along with clear interpretation guidelines, to improve clinical management. Although not impacting prognosis, confirmation of DS-MMRd EC may release patients and relatives from burdensome LS surveillance

Clinical Behavior and Molecular Landscape of Stage I p53-Abnormal Low-Grade Endometrioid Endometrial Carcinomas

PURPOSE: The clinical significance of the p53-abnormal (p53abn) molecular subtype in stage I low-grade endometrioid endometrial carcinoma (EEC) is debated. We aimed to review pathologic and molecular characteristics, and outcomes of stage I low-grade p53abn EEC in a large international cohort. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Previously diagnosed stage I p53abn EC (POLE-wild-type, mismatch repair-proficient) low-grade EEC from Canadian retrospective cohorts and PORTEC-1&2 trials were included. Pathology review was performed by six expert gynecologic pathologists blinded to p53 status. IHC profiling, next-generation sequencing, and shallow whole-genome sequencing was performed. Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival analysis. RESULTS: We identified 55 stage I p53abn low-grade EEC among 3,387 cases (2.5%). On pathology review, 17 cases (31%) were not diagnosed as low-grade EEC by any pathologists, whereas 26 cases (47%) were diagnosed as low-grade EEC by at least three pathologists. The IHC and molecular profile of the latter cases were consistent with low-grade EEC morphology (ER/PR positivity, patchy p16 expression, PIK3CA and PTEN mutations) but they also showed features of p53abn EC (TP53 mutations, many copy-number alterations). These cases had a clinically relevant risk of disease recurrence (5-year recurrence-free survival 77%), with pelvic and/or distant recurrences observed in 12% of the patients. CONCLUSIONS: A subset of p53abn EC is morphologically low-grade EEC and exhibit genomic instability. Even for stage I disease, p53abn low-grade EEC are at substantial risk of disease recurrence. These findings highlight the clinical relevance of universal p53-testing, even in low-grade EEC, to identify women at increased risk of recurrence

PORTEC-4a: International randomized trial of molecular profile-based adjuvant treatment for women with high-intermediate risk endometrial cancer

Background Vaginal brachytherapy is currently recommended as adjuvant treatment in patients with highintermediate risk endometrial cancer to maximize local control and has only mild side effects and no or limited impact on quality of life. However, there is still considerable overtreatment and also some undertreatment, which may be reduced by tailoring adjuvant treatment to the patients’ risk of recurrence based on molecular tumor characteristics. Primary objectives To compare the rates of vaginal recurrence in women with high-intermediate risk endometrial cancer, treated after surgery with molecularintegrated risk profile-based recommendations for either observation, vaginal brachytherapy or external pelvic beam radiotherapy or with standard adjuvant vaginal brachytherapy Study hypothesis Adjuvant treatment based on a molecular-integrated risk profile provides similar local control and recurrence-free survival as current standard adjuvant brachytherapy in patients with high-intermediate risk endometrial cancer, while sparing many patients the morbidity of adjuvant t